I over-weighted certainty and under-weighted reversibility
For years my decision instinct optimised for being right. I’ve revised toward optimising for reversibility — how cheaply a choice can be unwound.
The revision
The old view treated a confident wrong decision and a tentative wrong decision as equally bad. They aren’t, if the tentative one is easy to reverse. Certainty is expensive to manufacture and often illusory; reversibility is a design property you can actually build in.